One can interpret charts almost any way he wishes. So it was that I soon learned the hard way that not only were individual opions frequently wrong but that my own judgement was often unprofitably faulty.
And far more than men fell on those Pennsylvania fields. But hey, at least they got religion and implemented those terrible, far-too-actively-traded portfolios with ETFs! What will be robust to changing levels of risk and changing sentiment? It lives by that which nourisheth it, and the elements once out of it, it transmigrates. For a flat-rate monthly subscription you can now trade unlimited contracts—get a FREE 2-week demo! There are those who think that life Has nothing left to chance A host of holy horrors To direct our aimless dance. It is, after all, option 2.
If individual opinions are unreliable, why not go opposite to crowd opinion—that is, contrary t0o general opinions which are so often wrong? I suggest reading reports several years back so you can see how managements react to the cycle.
An unbiased appreciation of uncertainty is a conerstone of rationality—but it is not what people and organizations want. Extreme uncertainty is paralyzing under dangerous circumstances, and the admission that one is merely guessing is especially unacceptable when the stakes are high. Acting on pretended knowledge is often the preferred solution. But no guarantee of a sell-off, just an indication of extreme momentum. Be fearful when others are greedy. Not predicting a crash, but note how little risk is priced into many stocks! I have been asked to review the above, Intelligent Fanatics.
Please read the above link. Or are you just reading narratives of past success? Think about it for awhile, then reply in the comments section. Then read on………. This book is an absolute phenomenon in the publishing world. Since it came out in , it has sold millions of copies. It still sells over , copies a year. The book focuses on eleven companies that were just okay, and then transformed themselves into greatness — where greatness is defined as a sustained period over which the stock dramatically outperformed the market and its competitors.
It looks like Fannie Mae is going to need to be bailed out by the federal government. If you had bought Fannie Mae stock around the time Good to Great was published, you would have lost over 80 percent of your initial investment.
You would have lost your shirt investing in Circuit City as well, which is also down 80 percent or more. Nine of the eleven companies remain more or less intact. Of these, Nucor is the only one that has dramatically outperformed the stock market since the book came out. Abbott Labs and Wells Fargo have done okay. These business books are mostly backward-looking: what have companies done that has made them successful? The future is always hard to predict, and understanding the past is valuable; on the other hand, the implicit message of these business books is that the principles that these companies use not only have made them good in the past, but position them for continued success.
Although I did enjoy reading them, a voice in my head kept asking questions regarding the reliability of the research and findings. The world of business is complicated, uncertain and unpredictable. Our thinking is prejudiced by financial performance.
In good times, companies are praised and their success is attributed to a variety of internal factors. In bad times, companies are criticized and these factors, which may not have changed, are attributed for the failures.
The reality is more complicated and dependent upon uncertain and unpredictable factors. An interesting section of this book is the one on the delusion of absolute performance.
Company performance is relative, not absolute. A company can improve and fall further behind its rivals at the same time. For instance, GM today produces cars with better quality and more features than in the past. But its loss in market share is owed to a myriad of factors, including Asian competitors.
Is an oil company great if its profits soared when oil prices went up? Can the formulas used by successful companies in the 80s or 90s be applied to guarantee success today? A professor once told me that to predict future performance by analyzing past data is like driving a car forward while looking at the rear view mirror. It is interesting to note the difference in performance in the years before and after these studies.
Correlation and Causality: Two things may be correlated, but we may not know which one causes which. Single Explanations: Many studies show that a particular factor leads to improved performance. But since many of these factors are highly correlated, the effect of each one is usually less than suggested. Lasting Success: Almost all high-performing companies regress over time. The promise of a blueprint for lasting success is attractive but unrealistic. Absolute Performance: Company performance is relative, not absolute. The Wrong End of the Stick: It may be true that successful companies often pursued highly focused strategies, but highly focused strategies do not necessarily lead to success.
Tagged and Intelligent Fanatics , good to great , The Outsiders. I second that opinion.
Fowler witnessed how U. Our current crisis is much more similar to the crash of and the first Great Depression than the crash and Depression. History repeats itself, especially in finance.
Their fortunes rose and fell on margin, carry, and derivatives including puts, calls, and futures. They risked everything speculating in equities and a wide range of commodities including gold, silver, cotton, and more. Main stream media sometimes suggests that conspiracies are only for anonymous people who lurk on the internet, or people who send you poorly written emails from yahoo accounts.
But conspiracies are as American as apple pie. One of my favorite conspiracies is The Great Gold Conspiracy of Fowler provides details of the New York financiers who cooked that one up.
The price of Government Bonds abroad, wars or rumors of wars in Europe, disturbances of trade, the shipments of the precious metal in payment of our imports, sales of gold by our government; these and a thousand other strings were harped upon by the gold gamblers to produce those singular upward and downward oscillations in the price, which enriched the members of the Gold Board, while they disturbed the peace of commerce and beggared a host of infatuated outside dealers.
Every summer, since , there had been a rise in gold. In March, , gold fell to Emboldened by the success of this move, he formed a new and daring scheme. Tagged to Because I hold gold related investments, I always seek out the opposing views to test my thesis. Natixis economists are expecting to see the Federal Reserve raise interest rates by 25 basis points three times next year : June, September and December. So when you read the above, always ask for theoretical and empirical evidence of the authors claims. Is there any long-term correlation between US interest rates and the dollar price of gold?
And why? Their methodologies are even built upon the idea that an intelligent investor can get ahead by taking advantage of those times the crowd becomes irrational, the antithesis of the EMH and MPT.
Skip to content. CSInvestor: the author defines risk as volatility! The first strike applies even if those advisors immediately reinvest the proceeds of their premature sales in other undervalued stocks: They still leave too much money on the table , since The second strike is when advisors go to cash after selling. Posted on February 6, 2 comments. Chartists and Technical Analysis Posted on January 4, 7 comments. Why Value Investing? Technical Years When I first started out in the business, I was in a department that managed portfolios and set investment strategy.
Superinvestors of Edwards-and-Mageeville? But the Fundamental Guys are Wrong Too! Wall Street Analysts are Often Wrong! So Anyway I know people who swear by charts, especially people in FX, bonds and commodities.
Blackjack: A Wall Street Tale: You Should Know Your Investors - Kindle edition by Tim Quast. Download it once and read it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or. Blackjack: A Wall Street Tale: You Should Know Your Investors eBook: Tim Quast: graphanonvadla.ga: Kindle Store.
Posted on December 14, 6 comments. Year-End Performance Panic An unbiased appreciation of uncertainty is a conerstone of rationality—but it is not what people and organizations want. From Yahoo Finance. A review from a reader:. The following is a brief summary of the nine delusions: 1. Another lesson to glean is how to read the business press.